Member Stability

The Member Stability dimension of your GMLB report describes the balance between established and early-tenure members in your current active membership. It tells you how much of your membership has already progressed through the highest-risk period of the member journey — and how much is still in the phase where attrition is most likely.

The dimension does not measure how many members you have. It measures how securely your membership base is founded, and how much of its future value has already been earned through years of successful retention.

The stability mix

Your report splits the active membership into two groups.

Established members are those who have been at the club for two or more years. This is the group that has already navigated the highest-risk period of the member lifecycle and moved into a lower-attrition phase. Their continued membership is significantly more stable than that of newer members.

Early-tenure members are those within their first two years. This group carries the highest retention risk. Their departure rate is several times higher than that of established members, and their decision about whether to renew is still being formed.

This split is the foundation of the Member Stability assessment. A membership where more than half of active members are established has a solid base — it can absorb a difficult year without structural damage. One where the majority are in the early-tenure phase is carrying more forward risk, because its near-term membership figures depend on whether newer members choose to stay.

Early-tenure exposure

Early-tenure exposure is the proportion of your current active members who have been at the club for less than two years. These members carry the highest retention risk, and a high exposure figure means a greater share of the club's future depends on members whose commitment is still being established.

The benchmark for early-tenure exposure sits at around 27%. A club at benchmark has roughly one in four members still in the early-tenure phase — a manageable proportion that the established base can absorb comfortably.

High early-tenure exposure is not automatically a problem. A club that has recruited strongly in recent years will naturally see more of its membership in the early-tenure phase. The question is what happens next — whether those members are progressing through the lifecycle and becoming established, or whether the club is caught in a cycle where new recruitment is replacing members who leave before reaching that stage.

The 50% threshold

The 50% threshold — when more than half of the active membership are established members — is the key reference point for stability. A club above 50% has a majority of its members in the stable, low-attrition phase of the lifecycle. Its long-term membership base can carry it through a difficult year without structural damage.

At 51%, your club sits just above the threshold — the established cohort holds a narrow majority. But the elevated early-tenure exposure of 44% means the margin is thin. A period of weaker retention among newer members could shift that balance. The stability picture today is acceptable; the trajectory is what the report is watching.

A club that falls below 50% — where early-tenure members outnumber established ones — is in a structurally different position. In that situation, the near-term membership outcome depends predominantly on whether newer members choose to renew, and retention becomes at least as operationally urgent as recruitment.

The risk rating

The Member Stability risk rating is set by the combination of the established share, early-tenure exposure relative to benchmark, and the direction of travel — whether the stability mix is improving or deteriorating.

A Strong rating indicates the established cohort is well above 50% and early-tenure exposure is at or below benchmark. The membership base is settled and resilient.

A Moderate rating reflects a club above the 50% threshold but carrying above-benchmark early-tenure exposure. The base is stable today, but a larger-than-typical share of the membership is still in the higher-risk phase.

A Moderate-Elevated or High rating typically indicates that early-tenure exposure is significantly above benchmark, or that the established share has been falling — a pattern that makes future membership increasingly dependent on the retention of members who have not yet demonstrated long-term commitment.

Member Stability is the fourth dimension of the GMLB report. It connects directly to what follows — the age and gender composition of the membership — which shapes whether the pipeline of future established members is strong enough to replace those who eventually leave.